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SERIE B

Serie B Play-Off Predictions: Spezia Must Use Home Advantage, as Juve Stabia Eye Another Scalp and Palermo Need Joel Pohjanpalo’s Goals

By Dan Cancian

Published on: May 16, 2025

And then there were six. 

After nine months, the curtain has come down on the Serie B season, leaving six teams vying for the final promotion spot and two hoping to avoid becoming the fourth team to be relegated.

Such fate befell Sampdoria and Cittadella on Tuesday night, with the Blucerchiati dropping down to Serie C for the first time in their history and the Venetians bidding farewell to calcio’s second tier after a decade. Cosenza were already down.

 Salernitana now face Frosinone in a relegation play-out, with both looking to avoid falling through the Serie B trapdoor after a season in the division.

At the other end of the table, Sassuolo and Pisa had clinched automatic promotion, while Spezia and Cremonese secured a bye to the play-off semi-finals by finishing third and fourth respectively.

Juve Stabia’s draw against Sampdoria on Tuesday secured their fifth spot and a home tie with Palermo in the preliminary round, while Catanzaro held on to sixth place and will host Cesena.

Here, Destination Calcio takes a look at the play-off picture.

Spezia

The Ligurians finished third in the regular season behind Sassuolo and Pisa and while there will be some regret at failing to keep up with their promotion rivals, being the best of the rest comes with significant advantages.

Chief among them is a bye to the semi-finals, which will allow Spezia some precious time off to recover after a gruelling season. Secondly, the Aquilotti will play the second leg of their semi-final at home, where they have won 12 of their 19 fixtures this season, scoring 36 goals at an average of almost two every 90 minutes.

The flipside is that one of Spezia’s three defeats at the Armando Picco this season came against Catanzaro, who they could face in the semis if the Calabrians get past Cesena.

Spezia’s away record may also come under scrutiny ahead of the first leg of the semis, as they have won just five times away from home this season, drawing 11.

And yet, with the best defensive record in Serie B and the fourth-most prolific attack, they shape up as promotion favourites.

With 17 goals, Francesco Pio Esposito finished second in the scoring charts behind Sassuolo’s Armand Lauriente and it would not be a surprise to see him fire his side to the top flight.

Verdict: Promoted to Serie A

With 17 goals, Spezia striker Francesco Pio Esposito finished second to Sassuolo’s Armand Lauriente in the race to be Serie B’s top scorer (Photo by Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)

Cremonese

Defeat in Pisa on the final day of the season changed little for Cremonese, who were already assured of fourth place and will face the winner of Juve Stabia vs Palermo in the semi-final.

As is the case for Spezia, the luxury of putting their feet up for a week could be crucial for Cremonese, who were unbeaten in almost three months until Tuesday night.

But unlike the Ligurians, playing the second leg at home may not be a particular advantage as the Grigiorossi have won just seven times in front of their own fans this season, with eight draws and four defeats.

One of those losses came against Palermo, who could cross their path in the semis, the only reverse Cremonese suffered against sides they could face in the play-offs.

Giovanni Stroppa’s team have the third-best attacking record in Serie B, but among the teams in the play-offs only Cesena and Catanzaro have conceded more goals than the 44 they have let in.

They may have lost just once since February 22, but they have also kept just two clean sheets in the process and tightening up defensively will be high on Stroppa’s agenda.

At the same time, from March onward his side have played with the kind of swagger and belief that separates the pretenders from the challengers and it would be a major surprise if they were to miss out on a place in the final.

Verdict: Losing finalists

Juve Stabia

After sending one of Serie B’s giants tumbling down to the third tier, Juve Stabia have a date with another in the shape of Palermo.

The Stabians’ season has been a success even before a ball is kicked against the Rosanero, for nobody expected them to be challenging for a second consecutive promotion.

The fact they have done so is testament to Guido Pagliuca’s work and the self-belief he has instilled in his players.

Dismissed as a flash in the pan after racking up eight points in their first four games, they established themselves as hopefuls for the play-offs as early as October and not even a seven-game winless run as autumn made way for winter managed to derail their season.

Another minor wobble in February looked to have checked their momentum, but the Wasps responded again to a three-game winless run by rattling off three consecutive victories to cement their top-eight status and secured fifth spot with Tuesday’s draw that condemned Sampdoria to Serie C.

Juve Stabia’s success has been built on a rock-solid defence, which has conceded just 41 goals this season – the second-fewest of the teams in the play-offs (after Spezia) – and a near-constant threat at set-pieces.

Both should serve them well in the play-offs but their home record and overreliance on Andrea Adorante cause some concern.

The Stabians have won 10 of their 19 Serie B games at the Romeo Menti this season, losing five – including against Saturday’s opponents Palermo – and drawing four. Adorante, meanwhile, has been a revelation since joining from Triestina, scoring 15 goals in his first season in yellow and blue. Juve Stabia’s next-most prolific player is Leonardo Candellone with six.

But the Wasps are playing with house money now and must capitalise on the kind of opportunity that may never present itself again.

Beat Palermo on Saturday and a semi-final with Cremonese awaits. Could the Grigiorossi become Juve Stabia’s third high-profile scalp?

Verdict: Semi-finals

With 15 goals this season, Andrea Adorante is crucial to Juve Stabia’s hopes of a second consecutive promotion (Photo by Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)

Catanzaro

A six-game winless run which included defeats by promotion rivals Palermo and Juve Stabia threatened to derail Catanzaro’s season just as it entered the home stretch.

But the Calabrians delivered when it mattered most, winning away against league champions Sassuolo before securing sixth place with a draw at Mantova on Tuesday.

The reward is a home tie against Cesena in the preliminary round and there is a sense the Giallorossi may have at last found a much-needed second wind.

Catanzaro and Cesena have one win apiece from their meetings this season, but it was the Calabrians who triumphed 4-2 when they last met in February at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo – the venue for Saturday’s clash.

But playing on home turf is not quite the guarantee of success Fabio Caserta would like it to be, with Catanzaro winning just seven times in 19 matches this season.

Nine of their home games ended all square, which would be enough to progress to the semis on Saturday, due to them finishing above Cesena in the table.

In Pietro Iemmello they can count on one of the most lethal strikers in the division, with the 33-year-old netting 16 times this season to finish third behind Lauriente and Esposito.

Were Iemmello to add to his tally, a second consecutive semi-final should be within Catanzaro’s grasp, but winning away against Spezia appears a step too far.

Verdict: Semi-finals

Cesena

Emilia-Romagna is one of Italy’s cycling hotbeds, so it should come as no surprise that Cesena timed their sprint to perfection.

Having spent just three weeks outside the top eight until the turn of the year, a run of one win in seven, which included three defeats on the bounce, sent the Seahorses sliding out of the play-off spots.

They forced their way back into the promotion-chasing fold, but a seven-game winless run looked to have put paid to their hopes.

Yet the Bianconeri rallied once more, winning their final three games to clinch seventh place, courtesy of Mirko Antonucci’s last-gasp effort in Modena on Tuesday.

Ahead of their trip to Catanzaro on Saturday, it stands to reason to question which version of Cesena will show up. The one which failed to put away Brescia, Frosinone and lost heavily to Mantova or the one which beat play-off rivals Cremonese and Palermo? 

The red flags for the Romagnoli are clear. Cesena have lost nine times away from home in the league and are the only side in the play-offs with a negative goal difference.

More worryingly, Cristian Shpendi has scored just once since netting 10 in the opening 14 games.

And yet, just like Juve Stabia, Cesena head into the play-offs with nothing to lose and the dream of a second promotion on the bounce still alive.

Verdict: Out in the first round

Palermo

At the end of March, Alessio Dionisi conceded Palermo were still searching for their identity.

Dionisi’s plea seemed to have been answered as the Sicilians won three of their next four to open up a four-point gap to ninth place by mid-April, but three defeats in four outings almost derailed their season.

A 1-1 draw against Carrarese on the final game of the campaign allowed the Rosanero to squeeze into the play-offs in eighth place, which is where good news begins and ends for them.

Missing out on the play-offs would have almost certainly signalled the end for Dionisi, who has never won over the fans at the Renzo Barbera and was handed a surprise stay of execution in March.

Joel Pohjanpalo has gone five games without scoring after netting nine in his first nine appearances for Palermo (Photo by Tullio Puglia/Getty Images)

Despite reaching the play-offs, the former Sassuolo manager remains on thin ice and his future will surely come under scrutiny again should the Sicilians lose away against Juve Stabia.

After being backed to the tune of £10million worth of signings over the summer and winter transfer windows by City Football Group in a bid to restore the club to Serie A for the first time in eight years, Dionisi could have few complaints should Palermo decide to move on.

Finishing eighth means the they play away in the first round, hardly reason for optimism given they have lost eight times on the road this season, winning six and drawing five. 

Conversely, Palermo won both fixtures against Juve Stabia this season and in Joel Pohjanpalo they have a man with play-off experience.

A  £3.4m signing from Venezia in January, the Finn failed to score in seven games in the play-offs over the past two seasons with the Lagunari and will be desperate to open his post-season account with Palermo.

They desperately need his goals too, as Pohjanpalo has gone five matches without scoring since netting nine in his first nine appearances.

End the drought and Palermo’s Serie A hopes may flicker a little longer yet. 

Verdict: Out in the first round.

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