Predicting the outcome of the Serie B play-off race is a fool’s errand at the best of times, even more so before a ball has been kicked in anger.

So fine are the margins in the division that teams can go from near play-off certainties to out of the picture on the back of one defeat, while the door remains ajar for those who can time their sprint to perfection.

But securing a top-eight spot also comes down to experience and composure. To that extent it is no surprise that in the past decade just once – in the 2022-23 season – has the post-season picture featured a completely different field than in the previous term.

That trend should bode well for Cesena, who came close to a second consecutive promotion last season, and Catanzaro, who returned to the semi-finals for the second year in a row.

Elsewhere, Bari, Frosinone and Modena have embarked on major overhauls this summer as they look to mount a promotion push of their own.

Here, Destination Calcio takes a look at five potential play-off candidates. All fees according to Transfermarkt.

Bari

A 2024-25 season that promised so much ultimately delivered nothing for Bari, who missed out on the play-offs by four points.

Moreno Longo paid for the failure with his job, with Fabio Caserta replacing him at the San Nicola after taking Catanzaro to the play-off semi-final in his only season in charge.

Caserta is expected to shift away from his predecessor’s 3-5-2 towards a more fluid 4-2-3-1 and the personnel will also be vastly different.

Christian Gytkjaer is expected to lead the line after joining on a free transfer from Venezia, while Lorenzo Dickmann and Matthias Verreth will slot at right-back and in midfield after joining from Brescia on free transfers.

With Boris Radunovic returning to Cagliari following the conclusion of his loan spell, Michele Cerofolini will replace him in goal after joining from Frosinone.

Elsewhere, Roma starlet Riccardo Pagano joined on loan and will be reunited with Caserta, who managed him at Catanzaro last season.

Aurelien Scheidler has made his loan move to Belgian side Dender permanent for £690,000, while Kevin Lasagna and Andrija Novakovich have returned to Hellas Verona and Venezia after largely forgettable loan spells.

Expected starting XI (4-2-3-1): Cerofolini; Dickmann, Vicari, Nikolaou, Dorval; Verreth, Pagano; Lulic Pereiro, Sibilli; Gytkjaer

Notable arrivals: Lorenzo Dickmann (Brescia, free transfer), Matthias Verreth (Brescia, free transfer), Gabriele Moncini (Brescia, free transfer), Christian Gytkjaer (Venezia, free transfer), Michele Cerofolini (Frosinone, undisclosed fee), Dimitrios Nikolaou (Palermo, loan), Riccardo Pagano (Roma, loan), Emanuele Rao (Napoli, loan)

Notable departures: Aurelien Scheidler (Dender, £690,000), Ismail Achik (Salernitana, £86,000), Ahmad Benali (Virtus Entella, undisclosed fee), Nunzio Lella (Venezia, end of loan), Andrija Novakovich (Venezia, end of loan), Kevin Lasagna (Hellas Verona, end of loan), Boris Radunovic (Cagliari, end of loan)

Catanzaro

Two semi-final defeats in two seasons speak to Catanzaro’s consistency but also to the need for them to capitalise on their chances before their promotion window shuts.

That is the challenge facing Alberto Aquilani, who made his return to Serie B a year after being fired by Pisa when he replaced Caserta in charge of the Giallorossi earlier this summer.

The former Italy international has already indicated he will veer away from Caserta’s 3-5-2 in favour of a more traditional 4-4-2, which could feature a brand new back four that has lost Stefano Scognamillo to Benevento for £346,000.

Gianluca Di Chiara and Davide Bettella have arrived from Frosinone, with the latter expected to partner Federico Bonini, a £430,000 signing from newly-promoted Virtus Entella, at centre-back.

Di Chiara should slot in at left-back, with Ruggero Frosinini, a free-agent arrival from Trento, on the other flank.

Patrick Nuamah arrived on loan from Sassuolo and fellow summer signing Costantino Favasuli, who joined from Fiorentina, will operate on the wings either side of the established midfield duo of Marco Pompetti and Simone Pontisso. The goalscoring burden, meanwhile, will again rest on the broad shoulders of Pietro Iemmello and Tommaso Biasci.

Only Armand Lauriente and Francesco Pio Esposito scored more than Iemmello’s 16 goals in Serie B last term, while Biasci added six of his own.

Their understudies will again be Nicolo Buso and Filippo Pittarello, who signed from Lecco and Cittadella for a combined £1m after joining on loan last season.

On the departures front, Jari Vandeputte and Andrea Fulignati made their loan moves to Cremonese permanent for a combined £4m, raising some much needed funds. 

Expected starting XI (4-4-2):  Pigliacelli; Frosinini, Bettella, Bonini, Di Chiara; Favasuli, Pontisso, Pompetti, Nuamah; Iemmello, Biasci

Notable arrivals: Nicolo Buso (Lecco, £605,000), Filippo Pittarello (Cittadella, £520,000), Federico Bonini (Virtus Entella, £430,000), Davide Bettella (Frosinone, free transfer), Gianluca Di Chiara (Frosinone, free transfer), Costantino Favasuli (Fiorentina, undisclosed fee), Ruggero Frosinini (Trento, free transfer), Patrick Nuamah, (Sassuolo, loan), Fabio Rispoli (Como, loan), Alphadjo Cisse (Hellas Verona, loan)

Notable departures: Jari Vandeputte (Cremonese, £2.8m), Andrea Fulignati (Cremonese, £1.2m), Stefano Scognamillo (Benevento, £346,000), Ilias Koutsoupias (Frosinone, £86,000), Giacomo Quagliata (Cremonese, end of loan), Demba Seck (Torino, end of loan), Riccardo Pagano (Roma, end of loan), Tommaso Cassandro (Como, end of loan) 

Cesena

While some of their Serie B rivals have embarked on extensive overhauls, Cesena have opted for minimal tweaks. 

The approach is a huge testament to Michele Mignani’s work. In his first campaign in charge of the Seahorses, he took them to the play-offs and within a whisker of a second consecutive promotion.

Mignani will again be in the dugout this season, with his tried and tested 3-5-2 again set to be the formation of choice.

Giovanni Zaro will replace the Catania-bound Daniele Donnarumma in the back three after joining from Modena, while Dimitri Bisoli will add steel and experience in midfield after signing from Brescia on a free transfer.

Jalen Blesa has also arrived on a free and will replace Antonino La Gumina, who has returned to Sampdoria, in the role of understudy for Cristian Shpendi.

Mignani must hope Albania Under-21 international can rediscover the form he showed in the first half of last season, when he scored 10 goals in his first 15 appearances. Shpendi netted just once between December and the end of the season and if Cesena are to mount another promotion tilt they will need him to keep scoring.

Blesa scored seven in 12 appearances while on loan to Georgian side Dinamo Batumi from Universitatea Craiova, but may need time to settle in Serie B.

At the other end, Jonathan Klinsmann is set to retain the starting spot he won last season, but Cesena must fend off interest from a number of Serie B clubs for the American goalkeeper.

Expected starting XI (3-5-2): Klinsmann; Ciofi, Mangraviti, Zaro; Adamo, Bastoni, Arrigoni, Bisoli, Celia; Ciervo, Shpendi.

Notable arrivals: Dimitri Bisoli (Brescia, free transfer), Jalen Blesa (Universitatea Craiova, free transfer), Giovanni Zaro (Modena, undisclosed fee), Riccardo Ciervo (Sassuolo, loan), Siren Diao (Atalanta, loan), Tommaso Arrigoni (Sudtirol, free transfer).

Notable departures: Daniele Donnarumma (Catania, undisclosed fee), Elayis Tavsan (Hellas Verona, end of loan), Mirko Antonucci (Spezia, end of loan), Antonino La Gumina (Sampdoria, end of loan), Joseph Ceesay (Malmo, end of loan), Giacomo Calò (Frosinone, loan).

Frosinone

Having avoided a second consecutive relegation by the skin of their teeth courtesy of Brescia’s points deduction, it is all change at Frosinone this summer.

Massimiliano Alvini is the new man in charge, taking over from Paolo Bianco, whose 4-3-3 formation is set to make way for his successor’s preferred 3-5-2 and 3-4-1-2 set-up.

Frosinone have raised plenty of funds in the transfer window, Marco Brescianini and Luca Mazzitelli made their loan moves to Atalanta and Como permanent for a combined £10.3m, while Isak Vural joined Pisa for £3.9m.

Alen Sherri will replace Michele Cerofolini in goal after arriving on loan from Cagliari, while Ilias Koutsoupias has made his loan move from Catanzaro permanent.

He will be joined in midfield by Edoardo Masciangelo, who has arrived on a free from Cittadella, while Antonio Raimondo will partner Giorgi Kvernadze up front after signing on loan from Bologna.

After difficult loan spells at Venezia and Salernitana last season, the Italy Under-21 striker will hope to rediscover the form he showed in 2023-24 when he scored nine goals for Ternana.

Expected starting XI (3-5-2): Sherri; Monterisi, Bracaglia, Biraschi; A. Oyono, Koutsoupias, Gelli, Calò, Masciangelo; Raimondo, Kvernadze

Notable arrivals: Ilias Koutsoupias (Catanzaro, £86,000), Kevin Barcella (FC Paradiso, £86,000), Niccolo Corrado (Brescia, free transfer), Edoardo Masciangelo (Cittadella, free transfer), Alen Sherri (Cagliari, loan), Antonio Raimondo (Bologna, loan), Gabriele Calvani (Genoa, loan), Giacomo Calò (Cesena, loan).

Notable departures: Marco Brescianini (Atalanta, £8.6m), Isak Vural (Pisa, £3.9m), Luca Mazzitelli (Como, £1.7m), Mateus Lusardi (Pisa, £260,000), Michele Cerofolini (Bari, undisclosed fee), Davide Bettella (Catanzaro, free transfer), Gianluca Di Chiara (Catanzaro, free transfer), Emil Bohinen (Genoa, end of loan), Giuseppe Ambrosino (Napoli, end of loan), Filippo Distefano (Fiorentina, end of loan)

Modena

After a third consecutive mid-table finish, Modena have left no stone unturned in their bid to make the play-offs.

Dutch centre-back Bryant Nieling has arrived from Eredivisie side SC Cambuur for £780,000, while versatile forward Francesco Di Mariano signed from Palermo in a £390,000 deal and Finland Under-21 Niklas Pyyhtia arrived on loan from Bologna.

They have big shoes to fill with Antonio Palumbo sold to Palermo for £2m, while Giovanni Zaro has signed for Cesena.

Elsewhere, experience has been added in the shape of centre-back Davide Adorni, right-back Francesco Zampano and goalkeeper Leandro Chichizola, who arrived on free transfers from Brescia, Venezia and Spezia respectively.

In the dugout, Andrea Sottil has replaced Paolo Mandelli after being sacked by Sampdoria in December. The 51-year-old is an experienced operator in Serie B and has already professed himself happy with his “perfectly assembled” squad.

Expect Sottil to bring his 3-5-2 to the Braglia, with a host of summer signings going straight into the team.

Expected starting XI (3-5-2): Chichizola; Dellavalle, Adorni, Nieling; Zampano, Pyyhtia, Santoro, Gerli, Di Mariano; Mendes, Zanimacchia.

Notable arrivals: Bryant Nieling (SC Cambuur, £780,000), Yanis Massolin (Francs Morains, £606,000), Francesco Di Mariano (Palermo, £390,000), Leandro Chichizola (Spezia, free transfer), Davide Adorni (Brescia, free transfer) Francesco Zampano (Venezia, free transfer), Steven Nador (Spal, free transfer), Niklas Pyyhtia (Bologna, loan), Luca Zanimacchia (Cremonese, loan).

Notable departures: Antonio Palumbo (Palermo, £2m), Abdoul Guiebre (Ascoli, £216,000), Lorenzo Di Stefano (Torres, £173,000), Giovanni Zaro (Cesena, undisclosed fee), Thomas Battistella (Juve Stabia, undisclosed fee), Kleis Bozhanaj (Carrarese, loan), 


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