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SERIE A

Serie A Permutations: What Every Team Needs in the Title Race, Champions League Battle and Fight Against Relegation

By Alasdair Mackenzie

Published on: May 22, 2025

After 37 rounds packed with stress, sweat and celebrations, this humdinger of a Serie A season delivered the finale we had all hoped for.

Going into the final weekend of the season, everything is still up for grabs.

Napoli and Inter face a nerve-shredding climax to their year-long Scudetto tussle on Friday night.

Juventus, Roma and Lazio will then battle it out on Sunday for the fourth and final Champions League spot, while Fiorentina still have an outside chance of grabbing a European spot too.

Matteo Politano, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Pasquale Mazzocchi after Napoli moved a step closer to the title by drawing at Parma (Photo by SSC NAPOLI/SSC NAPOLI via Getty Images)

And the Euro dogfight will directly influence the survival scrap at the other end of the table, with threatened Lecce and Venezia facing Lazio and Juve respectively.

With Parma, Hellas Verona and Empoli also involved in a relegation battle where three will survive and two will join rock-bottom Monza in Serie B, Sunday’s climactic card of games will test the mettle of even the most battle-hardened calcio stalwart.

So who needs what in their respective ambitions? Allow us to run you through the permutations on a team-by-team basis.

The Serie A title race permutations

One point separates leaders Napoli (79) from defending champions Inter (78) ahead of a Friday night double-header that should – but isn’t guaranteed to – decide the title.

What do Napoli need? They host Cagliari, where the Destination Calcio team will be in place at the Stadio Maradona to see if the Partenopei can hold their nerve against an Isolani side with nothing left to play for.

A win for Napoli will secure the title. Beyond that, simply matching or bettering Inter’s result away to Como will do it.

What do Inter need? Inter travel to the form team of Serie A, Cesc Fabregas’ Como, knowing that they need Cagliari to do them a huge favour.

If Inter win and Napoli fail to win, the title will go to the Nerazzurri.

Can a play-off still happen? Yes! It will require some serious final-day choking from both sides, but if Napoli lose and Inter draw, they will finish level on 79 points and a play-off will be required to decide the 2024-25 champions.

The Serie A Champions League race permutations

Napoli, Inter and Atalanta are already assured of a spot in next season’s Champions League, but one precious and lucrative place is still up for grabs.

Juventus (67) go into the final weekend in pole position and with their fate in their own hands, but capital clubs Roma (66) and Lazio (65) are ready to pounce on any slip-ups.

Bologna earned one of Italy’s two Europa League spots by winning the Coppa Italia, which means that fifth place is a Europa spot and sixth means Conference League qualification. If Bologna finish sixth – we’ll get on to that – seventh would become a Conference spot.

What do Juventus need? A win away to Venezia will secure fourth place for Igor Tudor’s men. Beyond that, matching or bettering the results of Roma (away to Torino) and Lazio (at home to Lecce) will be enough.

Importantly, Juve have the superior head-to-head record over Lazio, so they will finish above the Biancocelesti if they end up on equal points. Likewise, they will finish ahead of Roma if they end up level as although they drew both of their meetings this season, the Bianconeri hold the superior goal difference (+22 to +19), which is the next tiebreaker.  

What do Roma need? The Giallorossi, unlike their top-four rivals, are up against a side with nothing left to play for but pride in Torino. A win would seal a top-four spot in Claudio Ranieri’s final game if Juve fail to beat Venezia. It is that simple, as drawing level with Juve will not be enough.

Roma and Juventus are in the race for the final Champions League spot (Photo by Fabio Rossi/AS Roma via Getty Images)

What do Lazio need? Lazio require huge favours on the final day if they are to leap into fourth. Firstly, they must beat Lecce at home – easier said than done after a run of one win in 11 home Serie A games. If they do that, they also need Venezia to beat Juve and Roma to fail to win at Torino.

What about Fiorentina and Bologna? Fiorentina can still grab sixth place and a Conference League spot. If they win away to Udinese and Lazio lose against Lecce, La Viola will knock the Aquile out of the top six courtesy of their superior head-to-head. Bologna’s Coppa Italia triumph means they have already qualified for the Europa League, but they could yet finish sixth – making seventh a Conference League spot – if they beat Genoa at home, Lazio lose and Fiorentina fail to win.

The Serie A relegation battle permutations

Monza may be long gone, but there are still five teams at risk of joining them in Serie B next season. If any two teams finish level on points in 17th and 18th, they will square up in a two-legged relegation play-off as Spezia and Verona did two years ago.

Verona (34), Parma (33), Lecce (31), Empoli (31) and Venezia (29) are looking to retain a place in the top flight for next season and the permutations here are a little dizzying – bear with us. 

What do Verona need? Avoiding defeat away to Empoli will be enough to keep Verona in Serie A. They would even be safe with defeat provided that Parma and Lecce fail to win.

There is a scenario in which Verona, Parma, Lecce and Empoli all finish level on 34 points. If this happens, a classifica avulsa or mini-table will form, counting all their head-to-head results against each other. That would save Lecce (12 pts) and Empoli (11) from the drop and set up a two-legged relegation play-off between Verona (5) and Parma (3). If just Lecce, Empoli and Verona finish level on 34 points, Lecce would again be saved by the classifica avulsa and Verona would face Empoli in the play-off.

What do Parma need? Beating Atalanta will keep Parma in Serie A. If they draw, they will be safe if Lecce and Empoli fail to win. If they lose, they need Lecce or Empoli to fail to win.

What do Lecce need? A win away to Lazio will save Lecce, who go into the final day level on points with Empoli. Lecce will also stay up if they better Empoli’s result against Verona and Venezia fail to beat Juventus.

What do Empoli need? Victory over Verona and Lecce failing to win. Empoli will also stay up if they better Lecce’s result and Venezia fail to beat Juve.

What do Venezia need? A miracle! They are up against it, but there is still a route to salvation if they stun Juventus with a win at the Penzo and Lecce and Empoli lose. Should Venezia win, and Lecce and Empoli both draw, all three teams will be level on 32 points and enter a classifica avulsa. Lecce would again come out on top with eight points to Empoli and Venezia’s three, but Venezia’s superior goal difference (-1 to -2) would earn them a play-off against Lecce and doom Empoli to relegation. Simple, isn’t it? 

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