Familiarity may well breed contempt but when it comes to Serie B it may also be crucial to success.

On nine occasions in the the past decade the play-offs featured at least one team that had reached the business end of the campaign the previous term.

The 2022-23 season remains the exception to the rule, with Parma, Cagliari, Sudtirol, Reggina and Venezia securing a play-offs berth after Pisa, Monza, Brescia, Ascoli, Benevento and Perugia had finished third through eighth 12 months earlier.

Although one suspects they would both rather do without the play-offs, the trend bodes well for Spezia, losing finalists to Cremonese a little over two months ago, and Palermo, who lost to Juve Stabia in the first round of the post-season last term.

Spezia have held onto Luca D’Angelo, who seemed destined to join Modena after the Ligurians’ promotion bid came to nothing, while Filippo Inzaghi has swapped Tuscany for Sicily two months after leading Pisa back to Serie A for the first time in 34 years.

Palermo’s absence from calcio‘s top tier stretches to nine years, but the expectations are enormous and Inzaghi has already made his presence felt.

“I think over the past few years, we’ve always been identified as favourites,” the Rosanero captain Matteo Brunori told La Gazzetta dello Sport.

“However, we’ve always been missing something, and this month, Inzaghi has made us understand what that is through what we do day to day.”

If Palermo and Spezia are among the favourites for the upcoming season, which begins on Friday night, flicking through the Serie B records may also provide a source of optimism for Catanzaro, who have now suffered semi-final heartbreak in each of the past two seasons.

And what of Juve Stabia and Cesena? Having flirted with the prospect of winning consecutive promotions last season, the pair will be targeting another play-offs tilt this season.

Modena, Bari and Frosinone will also be in contention after all changing managers during the summer.

Ultimately, predicting the outcome of the Serie B play-offs race is nigh-on impossible as the margins in the division are so fine that a single defeat can knock a team out of contention, while the door remains open for any club that can time its late-season sprint to perfection.

Palermo’s run last season is testament to that. After spending seven months at the back of the group, the Rosanero kicked for home as rivals tired and stumbled around them, while Sassuolo and Pisa had long disappeared towards the automatic promotion places.

Like Palermo, Cremonese and Catanzaro also returned to the play-offs last season. And while the Siclians were defenestrated at the earliest opportunity and the Calabrians again fell short in the semi-finals, the Grigiorossi went all the way to Serie A a year after losing to Venezia in the final.

Cremonese’s return to Serie A points to another curious trend in the play-offs, which have seen teams succeeding at the second time of asking.

Beaten 1-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals by Carpi in 2017, Frosinone won promotion the following season, defeating Palermo 3-2 on aggregate in the final.

Spezia accomplished the same feat two years later, incidentally edging out I Canarini for promotion by virtue of finishing higher in the table during the season after the final ended 1-1 after 180 minutes.

It was a case of sweet redemption for the Ligurians, who had lost to Cittadella in the first round 12 months earlier.

In 2022 it was Monza’s turn to atone, beating Pisa 6-4 on aggregate in the final after losing to Cittadella in the semi-final the previous season, while Venezia followed suit two years later, beating Cremonese 1-0 in the final after being knocked out in the first round by Cagliari the year before.

Cremonese continued the trend in June, so could Spezia be next?

“It’s always a complicated discussion, but that’s the beauty of Serie B,” D’Angelo told the media last week.

“In Serie A, you already know the top six or seven teams, but here, you can only really say it’s the three teams that were relegated [from Serie A], who have a strong structure, and Palermo, because of their signings and Inzaghi’s arrival.”

Predicting the outcome of the Serie B play-off race is a fool’s errand, but history may provide some crucial clues.