Picking the winner of the Grand National is an easier task than predicting the outcome of the play-off race in Serie B this season.

Sassuolo and Pisa may be running away with the automatic promotion spots with Spezia on their coattails, but just seven points separate fourth-placed Cremonese from Cesena, currently 10th but level on points with Palermo who hold the final play-off berth as it stands.

The picture could change again this weekend, when seventh-placed Juve Stabia host sixth-placed Bari in the final fixture of the round on Sunday afternoon.

The Stabians have been one of the division’s surprise packages this season and the mere fact they are in contention for a play-off spot speaks volumes for the work of Guido Pagliuca.

Juve Stabia hit the ground running on their return to Serie B and went into the second international break in fourth place, before a seven-game winless run across October and December looked to have burst their bubble.

Those who thought the Gialloblu were a flash in the pan were made to eat their words as they rattled off three wins in succession in the lead-up to Christmas to consolidate their play-off hopes.

But the Stabians’ promotion push has again stalled after just one win and three defeats in the last six outings.

The most recent of those three losses came in controversial circumstances against league leaders Sassuolo on Saturday, when the Gialloblu had two goals ruled out by VAR and the hosts’ opener came from a dubious free-kick.

Sent off at the end of the first half, Pagliuca has been handed a three-match ban and will miss Bari’s visit on Sunday, the first of three home fixtures in the next four weeks for his side at a very delicate juncture of the season.

Bari, meanwhile, arrive in Campania on a run of five unbeaten games that stretches back all the way to Boxing Day.

True to form, Moreno Longo’s men have drawn three of those five fixtures.

Only Catanzaro have drawn as many games as the Galletti and such is the relative competitiveness of the league, those 12 draws have been enough to see the Biancorossi sit inside the play-off positions, level on points with Juve Stabia and with a three-point cushion over Palermo.

Their seven wins is the joint-fewest from any team in the top 10 along with Catanzaro, but while Bari may not win any points for their style they have shown the kind of resilience that can be a deciding factor in a division as difficult to escape as Serie B.

“This win was absolutely vital,” Longo said after the 2-1 win over Frosinone last week.

“The teams below us were gaining ground, so this victory was a real statement of intent. In a league as competitive as this, you need to have both ambition and humility.”

Both teams have shown the kind of ambition Longo spoke of in the January transfer window. Bari welcomed Nicholas Bonfanti on loan from Pisa, with the 22-year-old opening his account in his second match for the Galletti.

Bonfanti will fill the gap left by Giuseppe Sibilli’s loan departure to Sampdoria, while the arrival of Giulio Maggiore and Gaston Pereiro from Salernitana and Genoa respectively should add both steel and creativity to Bari’s midfield.

Juve Stabia have been active too, bringing in Pisa striker Edgaras Dubackas and Napoli forward Lorenzo Sgarbi on loan, while centre-backs Danilo Quaranta and Patryk Peda arrived from Ascoli and Palermo respectively.

It is the signings of Dubackas and Sgarbi that are the most intriguing as the Stabians desperately need goals to keep their play-offs quest alive, as they have scored just 25 goals this season – the joint-least of any team in the top-10 along with Palermo and just two more than Bari – and remain too reliant on summer signing Andrea Adorante, who has nine to his name.

Such are the fine margins of the Serie B play-offs race that every goal could be crucial.

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