Gennaro Gattuso will be hoping for nothing short of a miracle in Norway on Saturday evening.

The Italy boss needs Israel to produce a result in Oslo against the Group I leaders if they are to have any chance of qualifying automatically for the next World Cup and avoid the dread of yet another play-off.

Scandalous as it may seem, many of the current squad have barely been around to see Italy win a World Cup game: one since 2006 is ludicrous for a nation of such standing in the game. But this is where we are.

The Azzurri’s 2-1 triumph against England in the suffocating humidity of Manaus at the 2014 World Cup remains the four-time winners’ last victory on the grandest stage.

Francesco Pio Esposito, called up to the squad by Gattuso for the first time in September, was eight years old when Mario Balotelli netted the winner against the Three Lions.

Missing out on a third consecutive World Cup would send shockwaves through the Italian game and the 3-0 defeat by Norway on the first match day has meant being up against it ever since. 

Should Israel pull off a victory it would give Italy a puncher’s chance of topping the table but for that to happen they need to win their remaining fixtures, starting with Estonia and the Israelis.

Gattuso, who has two wins from two since inheriting the job from Luciano Spalletti in the summer, has urged his men to focus on the task at hand and not think about the probability of a play-off.

“There’s no message, we just have to do our jobs,” he said in his press conference ahead of the double header. 

“We’ve got to work with concentration and not get swept up in all that comes from outside. It’s not the best atmosphere where we are but we have to focus on getting our results and being ready.

“There might be more changes in future, I don’t know, but first up we need to battle against Estonia.”

There is a prevailing sense that even if Italy clean up in their next four outings they will still have to navigate the hell of a play-off.

The scars of those defeats by Sweden and North Macedonia are still visible and will undoubtedly condition Italy whoever they face should results go as expected in the coming six weeks.

With the 2026 edition being held in the US, Mexico and Canada, it would be disastrous from a carnival atmosphere standpoint if Gattuso’s men failed to make it next summer.

Estimates put the number of Americans with Italian ancestry somewhere between 15 and 17 million, around 6% of the population. New York and New Jersey are massive Italian enclaves, as are Rhode Island and Connecticut.

In Canada the figure sits at around 1.5m and in Mexico there are close to 900,000 people who claim Italian ancestry.

In other words, there could be a lot of people severely disappointed if Italy, for the third time in a row, don’t make it.

“I really want to cry,” said FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who is Italian, after they missed out on Qatar 2022. “For all the Italians it is sad, it is the second World Cup in a row in which the Azzurri do not participate.

“I think back to when I was a kid, the emotions of watching the World Cup in 1978 and 1982, these are the things that make you fall in love with football. It’s sad for the Italian children but this is the situation.”

Considering the state of the current team it is debatable whether they have been missed at the last two tournaments. Yet those World Cups did, maddeningly, fall either side of Italy winning the delayed Euro 2020. 

The last World Cup held on American soil saw La Squadra reach the final, Roberto Baggio living up to his pre-tournament hype to knock Nigeria, Spain and Bulgaria out before the agony of that penalty shootout defeat by Brazil.

Italy feels a million miles away from repeating their USA 94 exploits. Financially speaking FIFA would ideally like the Azzurri at the tournament – even if they aren’t in the best condition.

Yet next summer all feels so very distant. For here and now, Italy need to continue winning and hope Norway slip up.

“At 90% we’ll go to the play-off, and these last games must prepare us to show the positives we’ve seen recently,” said World Cup-winning goalkeeper Gigi Buffon this week. “The people and the media need signals from us – we must show attachment to the shirt.”

The apprehension over the dreaded play-offs is palpable but before that comes Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday and Israel on Tuesday in Udine. 

Italy hold a 100% record against both and if they can maintain those, in addition to receiving a monumental favour from the Israelis in Oslo, then a third consecutive play-off may just be avoided.

Unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Just ask North Macedonia.