Como Can Find Comfort In the Numbers as Winless Streak Increases Frustration

There is always one stat that doesn’t lie. Como stuck to their game plan resolutely against Empoli on Monday evening but couldn’t avoid a third successive defeat. 

There was little to separate the sides at all – only Pietro Pellegri’s 47th-minute strike, in fact. Cesc Fabregas’ side dominated possession, enjoying 59 per cent, and they also had more shots and more successful passes than their Tuscan opponents. 

But this is a team fast learning the fine margins at the top of Serie A. After a thrilling September that saw them pick up seven points from a possible 12, their ascent has stuttered, with just one point picked up out of the last 15 available.

That sequence has seen them dragged back into the dogfight at the bottom. There is currently just one point separating Lecce at the foot of the table and Parma in 14th. Meanwhile, Como sit in 15th, a point above the relegation zone. 

As with every slip in form, there are mitigating circumstances. Fabregas can point to an injury and suspension list that has decimated his midfield options. 

Starting this season with six options in the middle of the park, the Spaniard was able to call on just one at the Carlo Castellani stadium, with defender Lucas Da Cunha filling in on Monday evening. 

Those missing include Sergi Roberto and Maximo Perrone, two of the club’s most eye-catching arrivals last summer. 

The absences and results have created an air of frustration around the club, but there is no panic yet, especially while there is faith in the numbers. 

While recent scorelines may be cause for alarm on a surface level, the statistics underneath show Como are headed in the right direction. 

Across several key metrics, Fabregas’ side are outperforming the majority of Serie A—and even some of its biggest names. 

For a newly promoted side, keeping possession is usually not the aim of the game, with an acceptance that the dominance enjoyed in Serie B won’t translate against more well-equipped opposition after the step up. Como have bucked that trend.

The club are seventh in the overall standings for possession across their Serie A clashes so far this season, with Fabregas’ men averaging 55 per cent.

Much of this is down to their pass retention, with their successful passing rate also in the top 10 compared to their division rivals. More impressive is how they do not let the opposition control the ball, with teams only managing – on average – a pass completion rate of just 81 per cent against I Lariani. That’s the fourth-best record in the top flight.

Those numbers go hand in hand with the style of play Fabregas has instilled in his team; a high-pressing game putting opponents under immediate pressure.

Como have the third-best press in Serie A, with only Juventus and Inter bettering their press success rate of 22.7 per cent. They average 3.73 shots per game due to their successful high press – the same rate as Juventus and more than the likes of Napoli, Roma and Fiorentina.

Even when it comes to average shots for and against over 90 minutes, few outperform them. Como average a touch over 14 shots per game (14.36). In terms of shots conceded, again only Inter and Juventus can lay claim to better records than their 9.64 average.

It all points to an issue with chance conversion instead of the ability to make them in the first place. Indeed, decision-making in the final third is an issue those inside the club are understood to be keen to address as the season wears on and the stakes become ever higher.

It’s a problem highlighted further by their expected goals. Como are one of only 10 sides in Serie A to boast a positive expected goals difference across their 11 matches this campaign. They average an expected goals tally of 1.04 so far. However, Monday was already the fourth time this season they have failed to find the net.

All the numbers point to the fact Fabregas’ men are performing well above their current position of 15th in the table. The numbers will serve to alleviate the panic, if not the frustration.

What may help with that is the return of important individuals. The impending international break creates an opportunity to recharge and regroup – though it may be a little while longer before the key figures of Roberto and Perrone are fit to return.

When that quality does return, expect Como’s form to do likewise.